The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its Long‑Term Demand Projections (LTDP) for air travel, showing that global air passenger demand is expected to more than double by 2050.
Under the mid‑range scenario, demand is forecast to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.percent ((2024-2050) from the nine trillion RPKs seen in 2024.
Also, a higher growth scenario would see a 3.3 percent CAGR with passenger demand reaching 21.9 trillion RPKs in 2050.
On the other hand, a lower growth scenario would see 2.9% CAGR with passenger demand reaching 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050.
The different scenarios are driven by alternative modeling of long-term economic growth, populations, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition, and air transport supply-side capacity development.
A positive outlook
For IATA director-general Willie Walsh, the overall outlook for air travel is positive.
According to Walsh: “People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyze opportunities, including jobs, around the world. Our Long-Term Demand report gives governments, industry, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long‑term planning. It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization, and an effective clean energy transition.”
It is worth noting, however, that the pace of growth will be uneven across regions, reflecting differences in demographics, market maturity, economic development, and connectivity potential.
Under the mid‑range scenario, Asia‑Pacific and Africa are expected to be the fastest‑growing regions over 2024-2050, with CAGRs of 3.8 percent and 3.6 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, Europe and North America are projected to grow more slowly, at 2.5 percent and 2.8 percent.
A look into rapidly growing markets
At the same time, the IATA LTDP identifies the fastest‑growing markets as intra‑Africa, Africa–Asia‑Pacific, Asia‑Pacific–Middle East, intra‑Asia‑Pacific, and Africa–North America, highlighting the importance of investment in aviation infrastructure and regulatory frameworks in developing regions. By contrast, several Europe‑centered markets are among the slowest growing.
Two long-term trends identified in the report are worth noting:
- The LTDP confirms that the COVID‑19 pandemic caused a permanent structural shift in global aviation demand. Unlike previous crises, the unprecedented collapse in RPK has created a persistent gap that is not expected to converge back to the pre-pandemic GDP-aligned trend by 2050, even under the high‑growth scenario.
- While long‑term demand remains robust, the growth rate is moderating gradually. Historical analysis shows that average annual growth slowed from 6.1% CAGR between 1972 and 1998, to 4.5% CAGR between 1998 and 2024. The central scenario for 2024-2050 projects a further slowing to 3.1% CAGR. This gradual moderation reflects market maturity rather than weakening demand, as absolute passenger numbers continue to rise significantly.
